What Kazakhstan Means for Ukraine

HIGHLIGHTS

• read the article paying attention to the words in bold
• summarize the main ideas
• comment on the ideas expressed by the author
• compose 3 questions for discussion

FOCUS WORDS

deployment	размещение,  расположение, базирование, дислоцирование
suppress	подавлять, пресекать, сдерживать
primary	первичный, основной, начальный, главный
pretext	предлог, отговорка
intimidation	запугивание, устрашение
launch	запускать, начинать, выпускать
resignation	отставка, отказ от должности
overestimate	оценивать слишком высоко; переоценивать
submission	представление, подача, подчинение
leverage	рычаг, двигатель; средство для достижения цели

PREPOSITIONS

What Kazakhstan Means for Ukraine

Jan 12, 2022 Sławomir Sierakowski

Russia’s rapid deployment of troops to help suppress the protests in Kazakhstan comes at an opportune time in the Kremlin’s negotiations with the West over Ukraine. But in the longer run, Russian President Vladimir Putin may have lost the sympathies of yet another neighboring post-Soviet country.

WARSAW – The outcome of the recent eight-hour-long US-Russia talks in Geneva was not reported on the main news broadcast of Russia’s state-owned Channel One, a primary propaganda outlet for the Kremlin, until the 11th minute. The first two stories focused on events in Kazakhstan, particularly President Vladimir Putin’s virtual consultation with the leaders of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). It seems that Putin wanted to impress Russians in other ways than by issuing an ultimatum to the West as a pretext to invade Ukraine.

Russia’s deployment of troops to help quell unrest in Kazakhstan is of a piece with Putin’s efforts to reconstitute the Russian empire through intimidation and military force. Putin is aiming to erase 25 years of Western security policy by curtailing the sovereignty of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and even the former Soviet republics – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – that have already joined NATO. To strengthen his negotiating position, Putin wants to show that Russia has something like its own NATO. Although the CSTO, a kind of “Warsaw Pact-lite,” was founded in the 1990s, the Kremlin has never used it to justify a foreign intervention until now, in the case of Kazakhstan. The CSTO did not intervene when Kyrgyzstan requested Russia’s help in 2010, nor when Armenia did so during its recent conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. But the Kremlin now seems to have learned the lessons of the popular uprisings in Belarus and Ukraine over the past decade. To launch joint missions with Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko’s forces, Putin could simply hide behind the CSTO. Tellingly, the CSTO’s “peacekeeping military mission” in Kazakhstan is headed by Russian Colonel-General Andrei Serdyukov, the same man who led the military operations to seize Crimea in 2014, and who then commanded Russian forces in Syria. Russia’s entry into Kazakhstan has certainly gotten the West’s attention. Its most important assets are its raw materials (oil, gas, and uranium) and its central placement in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which branches into Iran, Turkey, and Russia. Under Nursultan Nazarbayev, who ruled for three decades until stepping down from the presidency in 2019, Kazakhstan maintained a policy of relative independence vis-à-vis Russia, China, and the United States; now, however, the balance has suddenly shifted. But it is unclear exactly what the Kremlin hopes to achieve in Kazakhstan. If it tries to take control of the country’s resources, it will end up in a confrontation with China, which it cannot afford. Nor can it control the political situation in the country. The protesters, after all, have already achieved their goals of forcing the government’s resignation and restoring fuel-price caps (a doubling of prices triggered the unrest).

Nonetheless, after years of the Kremlin standing by and watching as the US and China colonized Kazakhstan economically, those countries now must watch as Russian soldiers help to patrol Kazakh cities. Chevron, ExxonMobil, and European oil companies have fields and installations across Kazakhstan, so the last thing they want is a deeper conflict. As always with Putin, the domestic audience is a key consideration. Most Russians – including many independent analysts and opposition figures – consider Kazakhstan a part of the “Russkiy mir” (“Russian world”). As with Russian speakers in Ukraine, the assumption is that all Russophones in Kazakhstan are in fact Russians who dream of nothing more than annexation by the motherland. In the 1990s, extreme nationalists, including the Liberal-Democratic Party leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky and the writer Aleksander Solzhenitsyn, openly called for northern Kazakhstan to be incorporated into Russia. Yet many Russian-speaking Kazakhs are not pro-Russian, nor do they want to incorporate their country partly or wholly into Russia. There are Ukrainians and Kazakhs who speak only Russian and do not want that language to be their country’s official language. But none of this matters to Putin. He sees the mere existence of a Russian minority – whose size he usually overestimates several times over – as sufficient justification to include a neighboring country in Russia’s sphere of influence. But the Kremlin also has plenty to lose in Kazakhstan. Deploying 2,500 troops may strengthen Russia’s influence, but maintaining a military presence will antagonize Kazakhs, just as previous interventions antagonized Ukrainians and Belarusians who used to consider themselves pro-Russian. That antagonism will have only marginal geopolitical significance in the short and medium term; but in the long term, it could lead to greater independence. After Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014, and Belarus in 2020, Kazakhstan is another chapter in Putin’s neo-imperial narrative. But that also makes it another traditionally pro-Russian society that Putin is at risk of losing. Though the intervention is supposed to scare the protesters into submission, it could well have the opposite effect, turning Kazakhs decidedly against Russia. Russia’s military presence in Kazakhstan is an additional source of leverage as Putin pursues his second goal: an unwritten agreement to halt the integration of Ukraine and Georgia into the West. Were it not for Russia’s ultimatum regarding NATO membership, the mere demand to withdraw Western support for Ukraine would be radical. But, against this background, Putin’s objective seems to be a minimum plan – almost a compromise. And the whole course of events in Kazakhstan and along the Ukrainian border serves this purpose. If, after eight hours of talks, the Kremlin-controlled media do not thunder that Russia was offended and provoked to an appropriate reaction, then it seems that the outcome was not a pretext for invading Ukraine. The West was supposed to learn from the CSTO’s deployment in Kazakhstan that Russia is equal to the US, has its own NATO, and has the ability to expand its influence into large neighboring countries. As Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said: Russia must get something from NATO. From now on, an agreement to keep Ukraine out of the Alliance is the minimum, not the maximum, that Russia will demand. It might work. After all, while a country’s admission to NATO needs to be announced, a decision to keep it out permanently does not.

Sławomir Sierakowski, founder of the Krytyka Polityczna movement, is a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations.

DISCUSSION AND APPLICATION QUESTIONS

1. What is the significance of Russia’s deployment of troops in Kazakhstan for its relations with Ukraine?
2. How does Putin’s strategy of using military force to reconstitute the Russian empire affect neighboring post-Soviet countries?
3. What is the role of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Putin’s efforts to strengthen his negotiating position with the West?

LANGUAGE REVIEW

FLASHCARDS

SYNONYMS

MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS TRANSLATION

deployment	подавлять, пресекать, сдерживать
suppress	рычаг, двигатель; средство для достижения цели
primary	предлог, отговорка
pretext	оценивать слишком высоко; переоценивать
intimidation	размещение,  расположение, базирование, дислоцирование
launch	представление, подача, подчинение
resignation	запускать, начинать, выпускать
overestimates	первичный, основной, начальный, главный
submission	отставка, отказ от должности
leverage	запугивание, устрашение

MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS DEFINITION

deployment	the distribution of forces in preparation for battle or work
suppress	smth put forward to conceal a true purpose; an excuse
primary	to put an end to the activities of, to hold back deliberately
pretext	to estimate at too high a value, amount, rate; to form a judgment or opinion that is too high or good
intimidation	to get going; start; initiate, set up
launch	a formal statement, document, stating that one gives up an office or position
resignation	power to act effectively or to influence people
overestimates	first in rank or importance; in order, in time
submission	being made to feel afraid or timid, the act of bullying a weaker person
leverage	the act of surrendering power to another; an agreement between parties in a dispute to abide by the decision of an arbiter

MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS SYNONYMS

deployment	establish, pioneer, introduce, commence, embark
suppress	redisposition, redistribution
primary	overvalue, overprice, overrate, exaggerate, exceed
pretext	principal, foremost, initial, fundamental, basic
intimidation	influence, sway, persuasion, pull
launch	bullying, threatening, cowing, scare tactics
resignation	submission, retirement, withdrawal
overestimates	subdue, contain, conceal, censor
submission	obedience, compliance, subordination, proposal, contribution
leverage	mask, cover, putoff

MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS COLLOCATIONS

deployment	capabilities, the impact, the social risk, the future growth
suppress	extreme, tactics, the act of, purposes, to discourage
primary	[beat, forced] into; to the superior’s [wishes, requests]
pretext	of [troops, soldiers, tanks, missiles]
intimidation	[financial, economic], use to [negotiate, force, obtain]
launch	product, service, chain, inquiry, investigation, campaign, invasion
resignation	[freedom, growth, movement], [the activists, protests]
overestimate	business, company, organization, the manager [tendered, offered, announced]
submission	source, purpose, aim, focus, goal
leverage	thinnest, to create, to start

COMPLETE THE SENTENCES BY FILLING IN  FOCUS WORDS

overestimated  launched  suppress  primary  pretext  intimidation  leverage deployment  submissions resignation

1. Opposition parties accused the Conservative government of trying to …………. the votes of those less likely to support the ruling party. 2. The company has been one of the …………. beneficiaries of the enthusiasm over artificial intelligence, with its share price surging by roughly 180 percent this year. 3. The group analyzed the climate plans of 25 big companies and found many of them …………. the extent to which their actions would reduce carbon emissions. 4. South Korea’s Defense Ministry on Friday described the …………. of the Kentucky and the nuclear contingency planning meetings between Washington and Seoul as “defensive response measures” to counter the North Korean threat. 5. In a speech in Tehran on the anniversary of the revolution on 11 February, President Ebrahim Raisi accused the West of «exploiting women» under the …………. of human rights. 6. U.S. officials say Beijing has established permanent diplomatic facilities in eight of the 12 Pacific Island nations recognized by Washington and uses the power of China’s massive domestic economy and import markets to gain ………….. 7. Beijing has …………. a diplomatic campaign to try to persuade Italy to renew the deal by sending senior officials to the country to lobby its case. 8. Al Hajri was reappointed in June after the formation of a new cabinet following the …………. of the outgoing government that month which came after parliamentary elections in the country. 9. The evidence collected to date suggests that financial statements, tax …………., loan guarantees, and other documents contain material misstatements and omissions. 10. The African Union has also expressed concerns over reported incidents of violence and …………. in parts of the country.

MATCH THE COLLOCATIONS FROM THE TEXT

1. restore	a) the integration
2. maintain a policy	b) justification
3. quell	c) influence
4. halt	d) the empire
5. curtail	e) of relative independence
6. expand	f) the sovereignty
7. reconstitute	g) geopolitical significance
8. sufficient	h) fuel-price caps
9. marginal	i) unrest
10. key	j) consideration

COMPOSE MEANINGFUL SENTENCES BASED ON FOCUS WORDS AND COLLOCATIONS FROM THE TEXT

E.g. _____________ to maximize leverage _____________

→ Analysts say North Korea may wait weeks or even months to provide meaningful information about King to maximize leverage and add urgency to U.S. efforts to secure his release.

1. _________ send a rapid deployment team to support _________
2. _________ to suppress information _________
3. _________ primary responsibility _________
4. _________ as a pretext to maintain a policy of _________
5. _________ have been subject to intimidation _________
6. _________ investigation has been launched after _________
7. _________ the incident triggered the resignation _________
8. _________ difficult to overestimate the effort _________
9. _________ an act of submission to _________
10. _________ use as a crucial political leverage _________

PREPOSITIONS

1. deployment ___
2. ___ an opportune time
3. ___ the longer run
4. focused ___ 
5. incorporate ___
6. ___ risk
7. ___ the background
8. a pretext ___ 
9. equal ___ 
10. ___ the short term

GRAMMAR MIX

1. Negotiations between the two sides ________ periodically for over two decades, and the most recent round again ________ to provide a breakthrough, although talks ________  in Paraguay.

1. have been ongoing; failed; will reconvene
2. have gone; have failed; are reconvening
3. are going; are failing; will be reconvened
4. went; failed; would reconvene

2. Sensors on warfighters and on their weapons ________ show exactly what the soldiers are doing in any given moment – for example, whether they’re pointing their weapons in the right direction at the right time.

1. may
2. should
3. can
4. must

3. When _________ together, mission analytics and human performance give defense organizations the opportunity to enhance training and accelerate readiness in powerful new ways.

1. applying
2. applied
3. having applied
4. being applied

4. There are signs that despite rapid growth in Internet usage in the region, many gaps remain that must be addressed if the digital economy _________ its potential.

1. will be achieved
2. is achieved
3. has to achieve
4. is to achieve

5. The Pentagon must act quickly lest it ________ its AI advantage to China’s well-funded advances, according to experts testifying on Capitol Hill and a new report from a government-data company.

1. will lose
2. would lose
3. loses
4. lose

6. Britain and Norway, which are not members of the European Union, ________ E.U. countries like Germany and Belgium, agreed to participate in the deal to build a giant undersea electric cable for sharing the power generated from offshore wind farms.

1. along with
2. with
3. alone
4. apart from 

7. Performance of the port sector ________ is the main determinant of trade costs between countries, hinges on the extent to which countries develop and rely on regional hubs and make use of efficient port concessionaires.

1. , which
2. which
3. that
4. , that

8. The deal, which the EU describes as «strategic and comprehensive» ________ outlines a plan to boost Tunisia’s economic growth through «socio-economic reforms» and greater cooperation on a green energy transition, education, research and innovation.

1. moreover
2. also
3. but
4. however

9. ________ the use of cloud computing technologies is not yet extensive among the EAEU member states today, it is expected to grow considerably over the next decade.

1. However
2. Nevertheless
3. Despite
4. Though

10. Trade among MENA countries is limited. Trade flows with the European Union, United States, and China are far more significant for the countries of the Middle East and North Africa; of primary concern, ________ is the efficiency of existing trade corridors connecting MENA countries with these major global markets.

1. therefore,
2. hence
3. thus
4. so,

VOCABULARY NOTES

deployment  размещение, расположение, базирование, дислоцирование	definition the distribution of forces in preparation for battle or work synonyms redisposition, redistribution  collocations of [troops, soldiers, tanks, missiles]
suppress подавлять,  пресекать, сдерживать	definition to put an end to the activities of, to hold back deliberately synonyms subdue, contain, conceal, censor collocations suppress [freedom, growth, movement], [the activists, protests]
primary первичный, основной, начальный,  главный	definition first in rank or importance; in order, in time synonyms principal, foremost, initial, fundamental, basic  collocations the primary [source, purpose, aim, focus, goal] (of)
pretext  предлог,  отговорка	definition smth put forward to conceal a true purpose; an excuse synonyms mask, cover, putoff collocations the thinnest, under the pretext, pretext for, to create, to start
intimidation  запугивание, устрашение	definition          being made to feel afraid or timid, the act of bullying a weaker person  synonyms bullying, threatening, cowing, scare tactics collocations extreme, tactics, the act of, purposes, to discourage
launch  запускать,  начинать,  выпускать	definition to get going; start; initiate, set up synonyms establish, pioneer, introduce, commence, embark collocations a new [product, service, chain]launch a [campaign, invasion][inquiry, investigation] into
resignation  отставка,  отказ от должности	definition a formal statement, document, stating that one gives up an office or position synonyms submission, retirement, withdrawal  collocations resignation from the [business, company, organization] the manager [tendered, offered, announced] his resignation
overestimate  оценивать  слишком высоко; переоценивать	definition to estimate at too high a value, amount, rate; to form a judgment or opinion that is too high or good synonyms overvalue, overprice, overrate, exaggerate, exceed collocations capabilities, the impact, the social risk, the future growth
submission  представление, подача,  подчинение	definition the act of surrendering power to another; an agreement between parties in a dispute to abide by the decision of an arbiter synonyms obedience, compliance, subordination, proposal, contribution collocations [beat, forced] him into submission; submission to the superior’s [wishes, requests]
leverage  рычаг,  двигатель;  средство для достижения  цели	definition power to act effectively or to influence people synonyms influence, sway, persuasion, pull  collocations [financial, economic] leverage (over) use leverage to [negotiate, force, obtain]