- read the article paying attention to the words in bold
- summarize the main ideas
- comment on the ideas expressed by the author
- compose 3 questions for discussion
|enhance||повышать, усиливать, увеличивать|
|inherent||присущий, неотъемлемый, свойственный, врожденный|
|restrict||ограничивать, держать в определённых пределах; сводить к|
|scrutiny||изучение, исследование, внимательный осмотр|
|erode||разрушать, разъедать, размывать|
|boost||форсировать, повышать, стимулировать, ускорять|
- to some extent
- depend on
- support for
- rely on
- with regard to
- access to
- incentive for
- emphasis on
- increase in
- strain on
Less Globalization, More Multilateralism
June 10, 2020 Kemal Derviş
Kemal Derviş, a former minister of economic affairs of Turkey and administrator for the United Nations Development Programme, is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
While some degree of deglobalization may be desirable today, this process also carries grave risks, from skyrocketing production costs to geopolitical conflict. The only way to mitigate those risks is through enhanced multilateral cooperation.
WASHINGTON, DC – With the COVID-19 catastrophe having laid bare the vulnerabilities inherent in a hyper-connected, just-in-time global economy, a retreat from globalization increasingly seems inevitable. To some extent, this may be desirable. But achieving positive outcomes will depend on deep, inclusive, and effective multilateralism.
One of the most powerful drivers of support for deglobalization is the vulnerability of production models that rely on long and complex global supply chains, which have sacrificed robustness and resilience at the altar of short-term efficiency and cost reduction. With many companies and industries dependent on faraway suppliers – and lacking any alternatives – no part of such value chains can function unless all parts do. And as the COVID-19 crisis has shown, one never knows when parts will stop functioning.
This is especially true with regard to China, a global supply-chain hub. The country is central to the manufacture of a wide range of common consumer products, including mobile phones, computers, and household goods. Moreover, it is the world’s largest supplier of active pharmaceutical ingredients, so a crisis affecting production there can disrupt medical supplies worldwide. It should not be surprising, then, that China’s COVID-19 lockdown immediately affected global production. Fortunately, China seems to have brought the coronavirus under control, and economic activity in the country is returning to normal, so the disruption has been limited. But there is no guarantee that the next disruption will not be more severe or last longer. Such a disruption could come in the form of another public-health crisis or a natural disaster. But it may also be a political decision – what the political scientists Henry Farrell and Abraham L. Newman call “weaponized interdependence.”This was a source of apprehension even before the pandemic, when the United States cited national security concerns to block Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei from its markets and restrict its access to US technologies and suppliers. Many governments are also intensifying scrutiny of foreign investments, lowering the thresholds beyond which restrictions are triggered, increasing the number of sectors deemed strategic, and working to repatriate production in these areas.
Many climate activists also call for more local production. Global shipping emitted 796 million tons of carbon dioxide in 2012, accounting for about 2.2% of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions for that year, according to the International Maritime Organization. Reducing the distances over which goods are transported would advance the world’s emissions-reduction goals. But at what cost? Efforts to prevent “carbon leakage” – when companies shift production away from countries that have implemented strong emissions-reduction measures (such as carbon prices, cap-and-trade mechanisms, or strict regulations) – would also imply some deglobalization. Already, some advocate carbon border taxes to discourage this phenomenon – an approach that would strengthen the incentive for local production. All of this suggests that some degree of deglobalization, with an emphasis on robustness and sustainability, may be both inevitable and desirable. But this process carries serious risks, from skyrocketing production costs to geopolitical conflict.To be sure, some increase in production costs will be unavoidable, as countries try to diversify their supply chains and build more redundancy into them. And it may not be too difficult for very large economies to cover the costs of diversifying their production. But small and medium-size economies would find the costs prohibitive. Countries attempting to stockpile supplies of vital goods would also run into cost constraints.Climate concerns and carbon border taxes could compound the problem, by spurring cycles of retaliation and intensifying strain on international trade. Likewise, reducing trade and foreign investment in the name of national security may actually increase political tensions and, by spurring a cycle of reprisals, place economies on a downward spiral.The emergence of two large and diversified blocs centered around the US and China could reduce some of the economic costs of deglobalization. But it would also undermine the agency of most countries (which would be forced to choose a side), further politicize the global economy, and erode the legitimacy of the international order. Moreover, by entrenching a volatile long-term rivalry, it would pose a grave threat to peace. The addition of a third bloc, comprising the European Union and other cooperation-oriented economies, would not do much to offset these disadvantages. A better approach would be based on effective forms of multilateral and global cooperation. To ensure adequate pandemic preparedness, for example, the world should develop a more ambitious shared early-warning system and agree to stockpile medical equipment in regional centers, overseen by the World Health Organization, with established cost-sharing policies and flexible deployment plans. Similarly, protocols and financing for rapid vaccine development and production capacity should be agreed (and continually updated). This would place the world on a stronger footing to manage a large-scale disease outbreak than an every-country-for-itself approach.
In the national security domain, countries should work together to develop what are essentially “arms-control treaties” for cyberspace, data governance, artificial intelligence, and bio-engineering. Such agreements should prevent a dangerous race to weaponize new technologies, while encouraging innovation that boosts human wellbeing and security. On climate change, far more ambitious policies are needed to achieve the global target – enshrined in the 2015 Paris climate agreement – of net-zero emissions by 2050. Declarations of intent and peer pressure will not be enough. Carbon border taxes, as part of an internationally agreed framework that includes financial support to less-developed countries, could accelerate progress considerably, without the negative effects of ad hoc measures.“COVID-19 is the last nail in the coffin of globalization,” Carmen Reinhart, the World Bank’s incoming chief economist, recently declared with concern. But some deglobalization does not have to spell economic disaster. With effective, renewed global cooperation, the costs can be limited, and the benefits – robustness, security, and sustainability – can be maximized. Building a new multilateralism won’t be easy; it may even appear impossible, not least because of US President Donald Trump’s disregard for cooperation. But a new US administration will eventually emerge. In any case, given the risks of the alternatives, not trying is not an option.
DISCUSSION AND APPLICATION QUESTIONS
- What are the main drivers of deglobalization? Are there any positive aspects of deglobalization? Is it possible to have such an integration association where the «every-country-for-itself» approach would be completely excluded?
- What is more preferable in the current geopolitical situation, multilateral cooperation or protectionism? What actors are more interested in multilateral cooperation? What are the potential challenges and drawbacks of shifting towards more multilateralism?
- What are the limitations of globalization in addressing global challenges, and how can multilateralism address them? How can the UN or other institutions promote democratic and inclusive decision-making in multilateralism?
MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS DEFINITION
|mitigate||to keep within limits, as of space, action, amount|
|enhance||to give or increase variety, to expand (a business or product line) by manufacturing a larger variety of different products|
|disrupt||to cause to be destroyed by slowly using up or disintegrating, to disappear gradually|
|restrict||to lessen in force or intensity; make less severe|
|scrutiny||the appearance of new properties or species in the course of development or evolution|
|diversify||to increase the value, attractiveness, or quality of; improve|
|emergence||to weaken or destroy by degrees, to attack by indirect, secret, or hidden means|
|undermine||a searching and careful examination or investigation|
|erode||to increase; raise|
|boost||cause disorder or turmoil in, interrupt the normal operation of|
MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS SYNONYMS
|mitigate||vary, expand, broaden, branch out, change, stretch, diverge|
|enhance||restrain , curb, confine, limit, contain|
|inherent||aid, promote, lift, expand, enlarge, intensify, escalate|
|restrict||alleviate, relieve, diminish, decrease, reduce|
|scrutiny||innate, inborn, intrinsic, implicit, integral|
|diversify||sabotage, subvert, overthrow, damage, threaten, destroy, ruin, compromise|
|emergence||intensify, boost, magnify, amplify, strengthen|
|undermine||crumble, decay, corrode, waste, ravage, spoil|
|erode||inspection, check, audit, survey, observation, probe|
|boost||appearance, rise, inception, birth, beginning, start|
MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS COLLOCATIONS
|mitigate||access/ entry/ imports/ movement|
|enhance||differences/ public support/ sovereignty/ stability|
|inherent||under the government’s/ public’s/ interviewer’s/ panel’s|
|restrict||assortment/ the economy/ risks/ production|
|scrutiny||punishment/ penalty/ risks/ losses|
|diversify||prices/ economy/ salaries/ morale|
|emergence||risks/ limitations/ characteristics|
|undermine||of a tendency/ from a recession/ of many new nations|
|erode||quality/ performance/ understanding/ communication|
|boost||authority/ position/ confidence/ foundations|
COMPLETE THE SENTENCES BY FILLING IN FOCUS WORDS
|1. The next few years saw the ………… of many young Nigerian agriculture entrepreneurs, like Mr Williams and Mr Nwuneli, in a period that many reports described as Nigeria’s «green revolution».|
2. Despite the increased ………… from regulators, the crypto industry was expecting Congress to eventually intervene and help legitimize the industry through new laws.
3. The European Union and national governments like Switzerland’s are forcing suppliers of oil products to increase the proportion of the fuel they sell that comes from renewable sources to ………… climate change.
4. The Welsh government said the «levy could make a real difference by generating new revenue to develop and ………… local services and infrastructure.»
5. The insurance market varies greatly by locality and the hazards ………… to the area.
6. Inflation, which surpassed 80 percent last year but has since come down, has severely ………… the purchasing power.
7. The United States and its allies have been seeking to ………… sources of supply amid mounting strategic competition with Beijing.
8. To ………… trade and employment, the cabinet unveiled plans, including supporting exports of automobiles, facilitating visas for overseas businesspeople and providing subsidies to firms that hire college graduates.
9. China’s success would foster the global spread of authoritarian power and ………… U.S. relations with allies, partners and countries of strategic interest.
10. China wants to ………… the use of mobile file-sharing services such as AirDrop and Bluetooth in a move that will expand its censorship machine.
MATCH THE COLLOCATIONS FROM THE TEXT
|1. skyrocketing||a) production away|
|2. vulnerability of||b) supplies of vital goods|
|3. national||c) strong emissions-reduction measures|
|4. repatriate||d) production costs|
|5. shift||e) constraints|
|6. implement||f) production models|
|7. incentive||g) strain on international trade|
|8. stockpile||h) production|
|9. run into cost||i) for local production|
|10. intensify||j) security concerns|
COMPOSE MEANINGFUL SENTENCES BASED ON FOCUS WORDS AND COLLOCATIONS FROM THE TEXT
E.g. _____________ mitigate the impact _____________
→ Progress outlined steps users can take to mitigate the impact of the security vulnerability.
- _________ to mitigate risk _________
- _________ enhancing the capabilities of _________
- _________ eliminate the risks inherent _________
- _________ the first priority was to diversify _________
- _________ to restrict movement _________
- _________ endure closer scrutiny _________
- _________ emergence of regional geopolitical blocs _________
- _________ undermine national security _________
- _________ erode confidence in the legal system _________
- _________ boost the revenues _________
- ___ some extent
- depend ___
- support ___
- rely ___
- ___ regard ___
- access ___
- incentive ___
- emphasis ___
- increase ___
- strain ___
- While such efforts – and GAFTA, in particular – ………….. in boosting intra-regional trade, the free-trade area ………………… its full potential, and the ultimate goal of building an Arab common market and customs union …………… far from realized.
- have succeeded; does not yet reach; has remained
- have succeeded; has not yet reached; is remained
- succeeds; has not yet reached;remains
- have succeeded; has not yet reached; remains
2. Arab integration …………. another milestone in 1998, when the Trade Facilitation and Development Agreement ………… into force.
- reached; entered
- reached; was entered
- has reached; entered
- was reached; entered
3. According to government projections, the population is expected ……….. by 2.5 million people by 2035, and the active working-age population …………… by 3.1 million people.
- have been shrinking; will likely decrease
- to shrink; will likely be decreased
- to shrink; will likely decrease
- to be shrunk; will likely decrease
4. Now France ………… aside by AUKUS, a new security and technology alliance between the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom.
- has shoved
- is shoving
- has been shoved
5. No one ……… be surprised if China soon ……. its sights on mediating a solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
- should; would set
- should; sets
- must; sets
- should; will set
6. In a world that is tearing itself apart, the European Union ……… make trust in the European project a top strategic priority.
- had to
- must have
7. Given that existing global institutions ……………., and given the rise of Asia in global affairs, ASEAN ……………. its ability to influence the debate.
- are challenging; must reinforce
- are being challenged; must be reinforced
- are being challenged; must reinforce
- challenged; must reinforce
8. ………… interconnected countries are, ………… it is for disease to spread among them.
- The more; the easier
- The more; the easiest
- More; easier
- The more; easier
9. One of the most powerful drivers of support for deglobalization is the vulnerability of production models ………. rely on long and complex global supply chains, ……… have sacrificed robustness and resilience at the altar of short-term efficiency and cost reduction.
- which; which
- what; that
- that; that
- that; which
10. …………., many islands have established preferential trade agreements with Canada and members of the European Union.
to lessen in force or intensity; make less severe
alleviate, relieve, diminish, decrease, reduce
to mitigate punishment
to mitigate penalty
to mitigate risks
to mitigate losses
to mitigate competition
to mitigate the effect
to mitigate the loss
повышать, усиливать, увеличивать
to increase the value, attractiveness, or quality of;improve
intensify,boost, magnify, amplify, strengthen
enhance the [quality, performance] of
enhance the [understanding, awareness] of
enhance the security of the [building, country, school]
enhance the [taste, flavor, appeal] of
enhance communication [between, within, among]
разрушать, срывать, разрывать
to cause disorder or turmoil in, to interrupt the normal operation of
interfere with, intrude on, obstruct, meddle, breach
disrupt the [meeting, conversation, peace, proceedings]
disrupt the [progress, growth, development] of
disrupted the lives of [millions, the residents]
ограничивать, держать в определённых пределах; сводить к
to keep within limits, as of space, action, amount
restrain , curb, confine, limit, contain
restrict [access, entry, imports] to [the web, the internet, websites, sites]
[access] was restricted to [members, professionals, ex-students]
[access] was restricted by [management, IT, the organizers]
изучение, исследование, внимательный осмотр
a searching and careful examination or investigation
inspection, check, audit, survey, observation, probe
under the [government’s, public’s, regulator’s, interviewer’s, panel’s] scrutiny
under the (close) scrutiny of the [government]
[examine, review, inspect] under formal scrutiny
[actions, movements, dealings] are under (close) scrutiny
to give or increase variety, to expand (a business or product line) by manufacturing a larger variety of different products
vary, expand, broaden, branch out, change, stretch, diverge
to diversify the assortment
to diversify the economy
to diversify risks
to diversify production
to diversify the base
the appearance of new properties or species in the course of development or evolution
appearance, rise, inception, birth, beginning, start
emergence of a tendencyemergence from a recession emergence of many new nations
to weaken or destroy by degrees, to attack by indirect, secret, or hidden means
sabotage, subvert, overthrow, damage, threaten, destroy, ruin, compromise
undermine [authority, position, confidence, health]
undermine [efforts, hard work, the progress made]
undermine the [structure, foundations, formation]
разрушать, разъедать, размывать
to cause to be destroyed by slowly using up or disintegrating, to disappear gradually
crumble, decay, corrode, waste, ravage, spoil
erode enemy forces
erode public support
форсировать, повышать, стимулировать, ускорять
to increase; raise
aid, promote, lift, expand, enlarge, intensify, escalate
to boost prices, economy, salaries, morale