APEC at the Apex

HIGHLIGHTS

• read the article paying attention to the words in bold
• summarize the main ideas
• comment on the ideas expressed by the author
• compose 3 questions for discussion

FOCUS WORDS

upcoming	наступающий, предстоящий
underlying	основной, лежащий в основе, подразумеваемый, скрытый
precursor	предшественник, предвестник
intrusive	навязчивый, назойливый
foment	разжигать, раздувать, подстрекать
framework	рамки, основа, структура, каркас
sufficient	достаточный
impediment	препятствие, помеха, задержка
conceive	постигать, понимать, представлять себе, задумывать
predicate	утверждать; заявлять, основывать

PREPOSITIONS

1. on the agenda
2. accounts for
3. stem from
4. subject to 
5. precursor for
6. equivalent of
7. aim at
8. on the contrary
9. support for
10. for these reasons
11. to one’s credit
12. owing to
13. impediments to
14. forum for
15. predicate upon

HIGHLIGHTS:

• read the article paying attention to the words in bold
• summarize the main ideas
• comment on the ideas expressed by the author
• compose 3 questions for discussion

APEC at the Apex

Nov 8, 2014 Kevin Rudd

Kevin Rudd, twice prime minister of Australia, is President of the Asia Society and the author of The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping’s China (PublicAffairs, 2022).

The significance of the upcoming APEC Summit in Beijing consists not so much in what is on the agenda as in what transpires on the sidelines. Meetings between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Barack Obama; as well as Xi’s meetings with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe loom especially large.

BRISBANE – The significance of the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in Beijing consists not so much in what is on APEC’s agenda as in what transpires on the sidelines. Meetings between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Barack Obama; as well as Xi’s meetings with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe loom especially large. These bilateral relationships constitute much of the strategic undercurrent of East Asian security at a time when the region’s long-term geostrategic stability has come into question.

The core reality is that the Asia-Pacific region comprises a group of rapidly globalizing twenty-first-century economies sitting on top of a set of nineteenth-century national tensions. That contradiction matters for the entire world, because the region accounts for some 60% of global output. Economically speaking, where Asia goes in the future, the world will follow.

But Asia is home to a multiplicity of unresolved territorial disputes. It is the epicenter of underlying tensions stemming from China’s rise and its impact on the United States, the region’s established power since World War II’s end. Indeed, many of the region’s territorial disputes pit China against US allies. More broadly, the region’s rifts are endemic: a divided Korean Peninsula; territorial disputes between Russia and Japan, China and Korea, and China and Japan; the unique circumstances of Taiwan; and conflicting maritime claims in the South China Sea involving China, the Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Taiwan. There are also long-standing border disputes between China and India, and between India and China’s ally, Pakistan. As if that were not worrying enough, Asia has become the next global arms bazaar, with military outlays in the region now higher than in Europe. Moreover, six Asian states have nuclear weapons. Both the tone and the content of the China-US relationship are a cause for concern. China argues that it is subject to a US policy of isolation and containment. It points to America’s “rebalancing” strategy, to military and/or diplomatic support for those countries with which China has bilateral territorial disputes, and US support for Japan’s revision of its post-WWII “peace constitution” as a precursor for what China views as significant Japanese rearmament.The Chinese also see the commercial equivalent of containment in the US-proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership, which includes Japan but excludes China. Furthermore, Chinese leaders point to what they regard as intrusive US human-rights diplomacy aimed at fomenting political protest within China (including Hong Kong) and undermining the regime’s domestic legitimacy.The US, no surprise, disputes these claims. For starters, the US argues that it is the various states of East Asia that have actively sought American support for their security, owing to their collective concerns about China. Moreover, the US insists that it is not containing China (as it did the Soviet Union); on the contrary, China’s economic rise has been facilitated by access to US markets, as well as to global markets through American support for Chinese accession to the World Trade Organization.On human rights, the US argues that there are indeed fundamental differences between the two countries’ political traditions and current systems. But, in the American view, this is vastly different from an organized national strategy of undermining the Chinese state and its institutions. For these reasons, the bilateral strategic-trust deficit is growing. Xi, to his credit, has advanced what he describes as a concept for “a new type of great power relationship,” one that seeks to avoid what others have concluded is the near-inevitability of long-term conflict between a rising power (China) and the established power (America). It is imperative that both parties try to close the trust deficit. Doing so calls for a framework of what I call “constructive realism.”Such a framework embraces realism about areas of contention defined by significant conflicting national interests and values. These issues should simply be peacefully managed over time, until sufficient political capital has been created in the rest of the relationship to address them directly. At the same time, it is “constructive” in the sense of identifying areas of sufficient commonality to create new public goods, such as bilateral investment treaties, a non-nuclear Korean Peninsula, and a global agreement on climate change. A constructive realist approach should also begin to sketch the broad outlines of a long-term “common security” concept for East Asia.The outlook for the China-Japan relationship appears somewhat better. Just a few months ago, the bilateral relationship had sunk to an all-time post-war low, owing to a toxic cocktail of territorial disputes over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, Japan’s handling of its wartime history (particularly prime ministerial visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine), and Chinese fears about Japanese rearmament. But now both governments appear to have recognized the growing risk of unintended conflict in the seas and airspace around the disputed territories, given the sheer concentration of naval and air assets in a limited space and the absence of effective protocols to manage incidents and prevent them from escalating. Both sides have concluded that even limited armed conflict would be disastrous. Moreover, with Japan and China facing increasing economic uncertainty, they have recognized that it makes sense for the world’s second and third largest economies to remove major political impediments to expanded bilateral trade and investment. For these reasons, barring any last-minute diplomatic indelicacies, the APEC Summit is likely to represent the start of a formal thaw in Sino-Japanese relations.APEC, an Australian diplomatic initiative launched 25 years ago, was originally conceived as an exclusively economic forum. Fortunately, it has also become an annual forum for US, Chinese, Japanese, and other leaders to engage with one another on critical questions of long-term strategic stability. The future of the region’s economy and the global economy – and the stability upon which they are predicated – will be powerfully shaped by the outcome of these deliberations.

DISCUSSION AND APPLICATION QUESTIONS

1. What are the key bilateral relationships discussed at the APEC Summit?
2. How do the nineteenth-century national tensions in the Asia-Pacific region affect global output?
3. What are the potential implications for the world if the APEC Summit does not address the long-term geostrategic stability of the region?

LANGUAGE REVIEW

FLASHCARDS

SYNONYMS

VOCABULARY TEST

MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS TRANSLATION

upcoming	достаточный
underlying	утверждать; заявлять, основывать
precursor	постигать, понимать, представлять себе, задумывать
intrusive	рамки, основа, структура, каркас
foment	препятствие, помеха, задержка
framework	предшественник, предвестник
sufficient	навязчивый, назойливый
impediment	основной, лежащий в основе, подразумеваемый, скрытый
conceive	наступающий, предстоящий
predicate	разжигать, раздувать, подстрекать

MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS DEFINITION

upcoming	tending to be encroaching, invasive, trespassing
underlying	to form an idea, notion; envision; imagine; consider; to hold as an opinion
precursor	obstruction; hindrance; obstacle
intrusive	fundamental; basic; implicit
foment	ample, plenty, adequate, satisfactory, due, decent
framework	about to take place, appear, or be presented
sufficient	structure, skeleton, frame, infrastructure, architecture
impediment	to instigate or foster; promote the growth or development o
conceive	to make an affirmation or assertion
predicate	a person or thing that comes before another, as in a method

MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS SYNONYMS

upcoming	incite, provoke, arouse, inflame, excite, encourage, stimulate
underlying	interfering, meddlesome, meddling, officious
precursor	basic, fundamental, intrinsic, primary
intrusive	ample, plenty, adequate, satisfactory, due, decent
foment	affirm; assert; proclaim; declare
framework	approaching, imminent, impending, forthcoming, scheduled, in prospect
sufficient	structure, skeleton, frame, infrastructure, architecture
impediment	understand, comprehend,  perceive
conceive	predecessor, forerunner
predicate	hindrance, obstacle, obstruction, barrier, interference, inhibition

MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS COLLOCATIONS

upcoming	discord, rebellion, terror
underlying	funds, cash, resources, credit, capital, details, information
precursor	motive, motivation, cause, reasons, principle, assumption
intrusive	to work, to practice of war
foment	cameras, scrutiny, journalists
framework	difficult to…, ….. to create/ facilitate/ improve/ provide
sufficient	event, game, movie, show, week, month
impediment	national, company, analytical, political, legal, scientific
conceive	upon confidence, on understanding, the theory on
predicate	to election campaign, offending, disease

COMPLETE THE SENTENCES BY FILLING IN  FOCUS WORDS

impediment  conceived  predicated  sufficient  precursors  intrusive underlying  foment  upcoming  framework

1. However, some analysts say the upbeat first-quarter economic data masks …………. weakness in both household and external demand, which suggests stimulus might be still needed. 2. Supporters say the reforms will make the process less …………., bureaucratic and medicalised. 3. Twitter owner Elon Musk announced …………. changes to Twitter’s look just days after rebranding the social media site as X. 4. The idea was …………. and heavily subsidized by Japan’s government, which hopes to export the technology to its neighbors in Asia. 5. China‘s government and state media often accuse the CIA of spying in China and of working to …………. a “color revolution” against the ruling Chinese Communist Party. 6. The United States has a long-established reputation for a fair judicial system …………. on the principle that any and all accused are presumed innocent. 7. Local authorities in England have a legal duty to make sure there is …………. childcare available for children aged up to 14 whose parents work or want to work. 8. The …………. is intended to ease post-Brexit trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. 9. Most of the international community considers Israeli settlements an …………. to the creation of a viable Palestinian state alongside Israel. 10. Drug enforcement agents say Mexican cartels use chemical …………. from China to manufacture fentanyl and press it into the fake pills that are shipped north of the border.

MATCH THE COLLOCATIONS FROM THE TEXT

1. the strategic	a. a group
2. national	b. looms large
3. undermine	c. areas
4. the outcome of	d. territorial disputes
5. the meeting	e. bilateral trade and investment
6. unresolved	f. isolation and containment
7. identifying	g. the deliberations
8. comprises	h. undercurrent of security
9. expand	i. tensions
10. policy	j. legitimacy

COMPOSE MEANINGFUL SENTENCES BASED ON FOCUS WORDS AND COLLOCATIONS FROM THE TEXT

E.g. _____________ predicated on mutual respect _____________

→ Free speech is predicated on mutual respect — that of people for one another and of a government for the people it serves.

1. _________ a close contest in the upcoming election _________
2. _________ the underlying problem is _________
3. _________ the remodeling plan was a precursor to _________
4. _________ protect individuals from intrusive _________
5. _________ foments polarisation in politics _________
6. _________ occur within the framework of _________
7. _________ have sufficient funds to _________
8. _________ is the main impediment to _________
9. _________ was initially conceived as _________
10. _________ predicate normalization on _________

PREPOSITIONS

1. ___ the agenda
2. accounts ___ 
3. stem ___ 
4. subject ___ 
5. precursor ___ 
6. equivalent ___ 
7. aim ___ 
8. ___ the contrary
9. support ___ 
10. ___ these reasons
11. ___ one’s credit
12. owing ___ 
13. impediments ___ 
14. forum ___ 
15. predicate ___ 

GRAMMAR MIX

1. The geopolitical story of the last few years …………. Western democracies’ gradual awakening to the realities of an increasingly ambitious and authoritarian China.

1. featured
2. was featuring
3. would feature
4. has featured

2. Earlier this month, EU countries ……….. a breakthrough on asylum law reform, sealing agreement on a plan to share responsibility for migrants entering Europe without authorization.

1. have made
2. made 
3. were making
4. had made

3. Since the Department of the Federal Revenue  …………. the AEO program in Brazil in 2014, it ………….. to almost 500 accredited companies, representing over 27% of all import and export declarations currently representing 40% of all imports.

1. introduced; has grown
2. was introducing; grew
3. has introduced; was growing
4. had introduced; wil grow

4. Deep economic integration could help policy makers address the critical development challenges that ……………… to the forefront by the Arab Spring.

1. were brought
2. have been bringing
3. have been brought 
4. brought

5. China has integrated Iraq into its Belt and Road Initiative and secured access to Iraq’s oil market through its oil-for-reconstruction agreement in 2019, with energy ………….. a leading focus of Chinese infrastructural investments.  

1. being 
2. having been
3. was
4. to be

6. If …………… appropriately, economic integration efforts could foster inefficiency.

1. having not managed
2. not managed 
3. not be managed
4. will not be managed

7. Nigerian officials suggested ZPCAS (Zone of Peace and Cooperation of the South Atlantic) ……….. integrate the ASA (Africa-South America) Summit, which implies both potential synergy and overlap between the two institutions.

1. should 
2. would 
3. will 
4. shall

8. Morocco and Tunisia have among the most restrictive regulatory environments, …………. mainly to restrictions on cross-border trade and consumption abroad.

1. due
2. because
3. as
4. for

9. Britain’s departure from the European Union in 2020 ………….. ended the automatic right of EU citizens to live in Britain, made it harder to recruit medical staff from other European countries to fill staffing gaps.

1. which
2. that
3. when
4. , which

10. …………. the countries have typically underperformed in logistics performance in comparison to countries at a similar level of development in other regions, the region saw significant progress between 2007 and 2008.

1. However
2. Though 
3. Since
4. When

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VOCABULARY NOTES

upcoming наступающий, предстоящий	definition about to take place, appear, or be presented synonyms approaching, imminent, impending, forthcoming, scheduled, in prospect collocations an upcoming [event, game, movie, show] upcoming this [week, month]
underlying  основной,  лежащий в основе, подразумеваемый, скрытый	definition fundamental; basic; implicit synonyms basic, fundamental, intrinsic, primary  collocations the underlying [motive, motivation, cause, reasons, problem, condition] (of) is the underlying rationale [behind, for, supporting] according to the underlying [principle, assumption, theory] the underlying [theme, message] of the [story, book, movie]
precursor  предшественник, предвестник	definition a person or thing that comes before another, as in a method synonyms predecessor, forerunner collocations precursor to election campaign/ offending/ disease
intrusive  навязчивый, назойливый	definition tending to be encroaching, invasive, trespassing  synonyms interfering, meddlesome, meddling, officious collocations intrusive cameras, scrutiny, journalists
foment разжигать, раздувать, подстрекать	definition to instigate or foster; promote the growth or development of synonyms incite, provoke, arouse, inflame, excite, encourage, stimulate collocations discord, rebellion, terror
framework  рамки,  основа,  структура,  каркас	definition a structural plan or basis of a project synonyms structure, skeleton, frame, infrastructure, architecture collocations a [national, company, wide] framework [an analytical, a political, a legal, a scientific] framework a framework for the [project, job, class] a framework to [support, guide, help, ensure]
sufficient  достаточный	definition adequate for the purpose; enough synonyms ample, plenty, adequate, satisfactory, due, decent  collocations sufficient [funds, cash, money, resources, credit, capital] give sufficient [details, information, references]
impediment препятствие,  помеха,  задержка	definition obstruction; hindrance; obstacle synonyms hindrance, obstacle, obstruction, barrier, interference, inhibition collocations to work, to practice of war
conceive постигать,  понимать, представлять себе, задумывать	definition to form an idea, notion; envision; imagine; consider; to hold as an opinion synonyms understand, comprehend,  perceive collocations difficult to conceive [why] conceived to [create, facilitate, improve, provide]
predicate утверждать; заявлять, основывать	definition to make an affirmation or assertion  synonyms affirm; assert; proclaim; declare collocations predicated upon my confidence, predicated on understanding, predicated the theory on