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Will the USMCA Change Mexico for the Better?

Dec 20, 2019 Jorge G. Castañeda

Jorge G. Castañeda, a former foreign minister of Mexico, is a professor at New York University and the author of America Through Foreign Eyes (Oxford University Press, 2020).

The new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement may well succeed in marginally improving America’s position regarding jobs, investment, labor, the environment, and dispute settlement. But if the pact is intended to boost Mexico’s economic growth and welfare, and bolster the rule of law, it will not achieve these goals any time soon.

MEXICO CITY – By approving the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the US House of Representatives has removed a major potential obstacle to the trade pact. The Mexican Senate has already approved the deal, and the US Senate and the Canadian Parliament are expected to do so early next year. Once it enters into force, the USMCA – which will replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) – will have far-reaching consequences for Mexico in particular.

The House vote came more than a year after the three countries’ leaders signed the USMCA in Buenos Aires in November 2018 – a longer wait than many had anticipated, but shorter than others had expected after the Republicans lost their House majority in last year’s midterm elections. Officials and analysts in the three countries had been hopeful that Congress would approve the agreement, given the important concessions on jobs, labor, the environment, dispute settlement, dairy products, and intellectual property that US President Donald Trump had wrested from the Mexican and Canadian governments. They were right to be optimistic.Yet, as recently as the US Thanksgiving holiday in late November, the Trump administration had not even sent the USMCA bill to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi – raising the prospect of the deal being postponed until after the 2020 US presidential election.There were both political and substantive reasons for the apparent impasse. The political issue was obvious: if Pelosi supported the USMCA (thereby showing that the Democrats could “do the people’s business”), she would give Trump a win at the same time that the House was impeaching him. But if she opposed the pact on the grounds that it failed to meet the demands of US labor organizations, she would expose the Democrats to Trump’s charge that they are interested only in overturning the result of the 2016 election. In the end, Pelosi came down squarely in favor of reaching a deal, calculating that the benefits of a constructive approach outweighed the drawbacks of giving Trump something to crow about.The substantive difficulties, meanwhile, related mainly to the enforcement of the USMCA’s labor, environmental, intellectual-property, and dispute-settlement provisions. In particular, American labor unions (notably the AFL-CIO) and many congressional Democrats demanded that the agreement be revised to allow US officials to conduct unannounced in situ inspections of plants and companies in Mexico. Such checks, they argued, would determine whether Mexico was actually fulfilling the pact’s provisions regarding collective bargaining and contracts, working conditions, union elections and leadership, and other issues. After Mexican negotiators initially rejected this demand, further talks eventually resulted on December 10 in an agreement acceptable to everyone: Trump, House Democrats, the AFL-CIO, and the Mexican and Canadian governments.Like NAFTA, the USMCA is far more important for Mexico’s economy than it is for America’s. Moreover, the labor and environmental provisions in the new agreement are essentially directed at Mexico. But although these additional measures are welcome, they come at a difficult time for the country’s economy.

When NAFTA was finally approved in the US back in 1993, it included only side agreements on labor and the environment, with practically no enforcement mechanisms, let alone sanctions for non-compliance. By 2017, when Trump forced Mexico into renegotiating NAFTA, US Democrats, labor unions, and environmental activists were complaining that Mexico had taken the US for a ride over the previous quarter-century by failing to improve its labor practices and environmental regulation. These critics may have exaggerated their case – Mexico’s new president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, had already persuaded the country’s congress to approve wide-ranging labor reforms – but they had a point, and in the USMCA negotiations, they and others focused on enforcement of such provisions.As a result, the revised USMCA contains a series of much-needed enforcement mechanisms. For starters, the pact shifts the burden of proof regarding alleged violations of labor or environmental provisions from the accuser (in most cases the US) to the accused (usually Mexico). It also establishes a rapid-response system of independent panels to receive complaints and determine whether labor rights were violated, and to impose sanctions if they were. Finally, eight American attachés (five of them focusing on labor issues, and three on environmental matters) will be sent to Mexico under the pact to “monitor and enforce” the country’s compliance with its obligations in these areas.The labor attachés will report to an Interagency Labor Committee every three months, and in principle will be entitled to hear complaints – including via a 24-hour telephone hotline – and investigate alleged violations of Mexican labor laws. The Mexican authorities have questioned whether these provisions were in fact agreed upon in Mexico City on December 10, while the country’s business community was blindsided by the measures and is uncomfortable with them. But they probably will remain in place, because it was these Mexican concessions that persuaded US unions and Democrats to back Trump’s deal.At the same time, it will be difficult to eliminate overnight some of Mexico’s most significant, though embarrassing, competitive advantages. Low wages, deplorable working conditions, tame labor unions, and utter disregard for the environment have all been crucial ingredients of the country’s export boom over the last quarter-century. It is likely, and certainly desirable, that the USMCA, by effectively introducing a labor and environmental protectorate, will force Mexico to abandon these shameful practices. But doing so at a time when Mexico’s economy is stagnant or falling into recession may make matters worse. Similarly, the new labor and environmental provisions will surely make the private sector – both foreign and domestic – even more reluctant to invest in a country governed by an erratic and ideological president.The USMCA may well succeed in marginally improving America’s position regarding jobs, investment, labor, the environment, and dispute settlement. But if the pact is intended to boost Mexico’s economic growth and welfare, and bolster the rule of law, it will not achieve these goals any time soon.

FOCUS WORDS

anticipateожидать, предвосхищать, предчувствовать
concessionуступка
postponeоткладывать, отсрочивать
determine определять, устанавливать
rejectотвергать, отклонять
crucialрешающий, ключевой, критический
complianceсогласие
abandon отказываться от, оставлять, покидать
reluctant вынужденный, неохотный
enforcement приведение в исполнение

PREPOSITIONS

  1. obstacle to 
  2. consequences for
  3. in particular
  4. change for the better
  5. reasons for
  6. benefits of
  7. relate to 
  8. acceptable to
  9. focused on
  10. compliance with
  11. disregard for
  12. succeed in
  13. invest in 
  14. sanctions for
  15. on the grounds

FLASHCARDS
SYNONYMS
VOCABULARY TEST

MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS TRANSLATION

anticipateопределять, устанавливать
concessionрешающий, ключевой, критический
postponeожидать, предвосхищать, предчувствовать
determine вынужденный, неохотный
rejectприведение в исполнение
crucialуступка
complianceотказываться от, оставлять, покидать
abandon отвергать, отклонять
reluctant согласие
enforcementоткладывать, отсрочивать

MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS DEFINITION

anticipateto conclude or figure out, to settle, resolve, or decide
concessionto leave completely and finally; to give up; withdraw from
postponeof highest, greatest, or most critical importance
determine to realize or feel beforehand; foresee
rejectto refuse to have, take, use, recognize; to refuse to accept or admit
crucialconformity; accordance
complianceunwilling; not inclined to do something, marked by hesitation 
abandon the act of yielding, as a right, a privilege, or a point or fact in an argument
reluctant the act of enforcing; ensuring observance of or obedience to
enforcement to put (something) off to a later time

MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS SYNONYMS

anticipatenegotiation, compromise, granting, yielding
concessionrefuse, decline
postponehesitant, disinclined, unenthusiastic, opposed, adverse, uncertain 
determine expect, predict 
rejectobedience, observance, submission
crucialdelay, put off, defer, suspend 
complianceimplementation, administering, execution, fulfilling, forcing
abandon cast aside, depart, surrender, cancel 
reluctant define, decide, outline
enforcement critical, key, vital, pivotal, essential, fundamental, decisive

MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS COLLOCATIONS

anticipateto make, demand, seek
concessionfor success, understanding; role in
postponemembers, supporters;  to go/ leave/ take/ accept/ do/ offer
determine success, favourable decision, a failure, a refusal
rejecta right, a theory, hope
cruciala position, a dispute, the quantity
compliancelaw, regulations, security, police; of sanctions/ penalties/ bans
abandon smb.’s demand, an idea, an offer 
reluctant total, complete, with the rules/ plan/ standards/ regulations
enforcement the meeting, the match, vacation

PREPOSITIONS

  1. obstacle ___ 
  2. consequences ___ 
  3. ___  particular
  4. prospect ___ 
  5. reasons ___ 
  6. benefits ___ 
  7. relate ___ 
  8. acceptable ___ 
  9. focused ___ 
  10. compliance ___ 
  11. disregard ___ 
  12. succeed ___ 
  13. invest ___ 
  14. sanctions ___ 
  15. ___ the grounds

VOCABULARY NOTES
anticipate
ожидать,
предвосхищать, предчувствовать,
опасаться
definition
to realize or feel beforehand; foresee

synonyms
expect, predict 

collocations
to anticipate success [happy solution, favourable decision]
to anticipate a failure [a refusal, a disaster] 
concession
уступка
definition
the act of yielding, as a right, a privilege, or a point or fact in an argument

synonyms
negotiation, compromise, granting, yielding

collocations
won [some, important, several] concessions
[refuses, unwilling, not willing] to make any concessions
[demand, seek] further concessions
postpone
откладывать,
отсрочивать
definition
to put (something) off to a later time

synonyms
delay, put off, defer, suspend 

collocations
postpone [the meeting, the match, your vacation, his decision]
postponed due to [illness, vacations, the weather]
determine 
определять,
устанавливать
definition
to conclude or figure out, to settle, resolve, or decide 

synonyms
define, decide, outline

collocations
to determine a position,
to determine a dispute,
determine the quantity  
reject
отвергать,
отклонять
definition
to refuse to have, take, use, recognize; to refuse to accept or admit

synonyms
refuse, decline

collocations
to reject smb.’s demand 
to reject an idea, an offer 
crucial
решающий,
ключевой,
критический
definition
of highest, greatest, or most critical importance

synonyms
critical, key, vital, pivotal, essential, fundamental, decisive

collocations
it is crucial that you [don’t forget, go, remember]
is crucial for [success, understanding]
was crucial in [preparing, determining, preparing]
…played a crucial role in
[proved, turned out] to be crucial
compliance
согласие
definition
conformity; accordance

synonyms
obedience, observance, submission

collocations
[total, complete, full] compliance
[demands, ensures, requires] compliance (with)[regulatory, corporate, environmental] compliance
[achieve, determine] compliance (through)
in [full] compliance with the [rules]
compliance with the [rules, plan, standards, regulations]
abandon 
отказываться от, оставлять,
покидать 
definition
to leave completely and finally; to give up; withdraw from

synonyms
cast aside, depart, surrender, cancel 

collocations
to abandon a right
to abandon a theory 
to abandon hope
reluctant  
вынужденный,
неохотный
definition
unwilling; not inclined to do something, marked by hesitation 

synonyms
hesitant, disinclined, unenthusiastic, opposed, adverse, uncertain 

collocations
reluctant [members, supporters, students, readers] (of)
received the reluctant [support, acceptance, approval] of
was reluctant to [go, leave, take, accept, do, offer]
enforcement 
приведение в исполнение
definition
the act of enforcing; ensuring observance of or obedience to

synonyms
implementation, administering, execution, fulfilling, forcing

collocations

[law, regulations, security, police] enforcement
[local, state, national] law enforcement
[full, total, complete, strict, effective] enforcement of the law
the enforcement of [sanctions, penalties, bans]