HIGHLIGHTS
- read the article paying attention to the words in bold
- summarize the main ideas
- comment on the ideas expressed by the author
- compose 3 questions for discussion
FOCUS WORDS
| clout | влияние, авторитет, мощь, вес |
| profound | глубокий, основательный, фундаментальный |
| impact | воздействие, влияние |
| bolster | поддерживать, укреплять |
| insulate | отделять, обособлять, изолировать |
| pivotal | основной, центральный, кардинальный |
| facilitate | содействовать, способствовать, облегчать, продвигать |
| evolve | развивать, развертывать |
| stance | позиция, установка |
| reinforce | укреплять, усиливать, подкреплять |
PREPOSITIONS
- grapple with
- under pressure
- an impact on
- faced with
- insulated against
- respond to
- at scale
- praise for
- discriminate against
- integral to
- give rise to
- at risk
- commitment to
- vision for
- stance on
Can ASEAN Turn Geostrategic and Technological Disruption into Opportunity?
Individually, ASEAN’s members have little global clout; collectively, they represent 10% of the world’s people and nearly 5% of its GDP. At a time when large powers and global trends are reshaping the regional environment, the only way for ASEAN countries to advance their interests effectively is by working together.
GENEVA – Is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations resilient enough to thrive amid the regional and global transformations taking place today? While the global economy continues its broad-based expansion, disruptive economic, geostrategic, and technological forces may threaten ASEAN’s gains of recent years. To survive, ASEAN members must make important decisions about the role of their community in regional affairs. With the right choices, the region can convert disruption into an opportunity for a resilient future.
ASEAN has undergone an impressive turnaround in the past five decades. A region of turbulence, disharmony, and underdevelopment in the 1960s is today one of relative peace and economic success. Much of the credit belongs to the community-building efforts of the countries under the ASEAN umbrella. But the region also benefited strongly from the post-World War II global architecture and institutions that promoted inward flows of investment and outward flows of exports.Today, this global backdrop is in a state of profound transformation. The benefits of free and open trade are being questioned, international institutions are being challenged, new geopolitical powers are rising, and – despite ups and downs – the global economy continues to tilt further toward emerging markets. All of this creates an opportunity for new and competing visions of how the world should be organized and run. Alongside rising geopolitical uncertainty, ASEAN countries must grapple with the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The exponential development of technologies such as artificial intelligence, advanced robotics, precision medicine, and autonomous vehicles is transforming economies, businesses, and societies. ASEAN members will feel the effects of the Fourth Industrial Revolution acutely. Consider the future of jobs. The working-age population in the bloc is increasing by 11,000 people daily and will continue to grow at this rate for the next 15 years. This demographic expansion is happening just as many existing jobs will be substituted by intelligent automation and AI. Systems of taxation that rely on labor income will come under pressure. National budgets will be challenged at exactly the moment when ASEAN members must increase their investment in reskilling labor forces and developing infrastructure for this new age.Or consider the future of manufacturing. Technologies such as 3D printing and cheap industrial robots are enabling products to be made in small, highly-customized forms rather than large batches of uniform goods. For ASEAN, the shift from centralized global supply chains to localized production systems could have a serious impact on export revenues and the investment by which it is driven.
Faced with these disruptive shifts, ASEAN must strengthen its community. Economically, regional resilience can be bolstered by building a genuine single market: ASEAN has 630 million citizens with rapidly rising spending power. Fully implementing the ASEAN Economic Community will be key. With a strong regional market, ASEAN can drive its own economic destiny, rather than relying on demand from external markets, and will be better insulated against potential protectionist shocks.Creating a single market for services will be critical. Here, especially, ASEAN members must respond to the Fourth Industrial Revolution, tackling issues such as harmonization of rules governing the use of data. New technologies – including digital platforms, big-data analytics, and cloud-based services – do not recognize national borders and function best when they operate at scale. With a single digital market, ASEAN can develop truly pan-regional services in finance, health care, education, and e-commerce.Of course, ASEAN should not build a fortress that keeps out the world. Indeed, the bloc has long been praised for its “open regionalism,” whereby it pursues economic integration among member states without discriminating against non-ASEAN economies. This approach has been integral to ASEAN’s economic strategy from the beginning, and continues with the soon-to-be concluded Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership joining ASEAN with China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, and New Zealand. Strengthening the political-security community is equally essential. With the architecture of global governance being challenged, ASEAN members must make their voices heard if they want a world that supports their interests. Individually, Southeast Asia’s countries carry little weight; collectively, however, they represent almost a tenth of the world’s population and nearly 5% of its GDP. Historically, ASEAN has played a pivotal role in facilitating regional relationships, giving rise to the notion of “ASEAN centrality” in Asia. In 1993, the bloc established the ASEAN Regional Forum – now with 27 members – to foster dialogue on political and security concerns. It established the East Asia Summit, currently with 18 member states, in 2005.Today, however, the geopolitical context is evolving. As other powers rise, ASEAN is at risk of losing its collective commitment to a shared vision for the region and a common stance on geopolitical issues. Many observers believe that other countries are undermining ASEAN unanimity by developing dependencies with individual countries, built on investment, trade, and assistance. Unless ASEAN remains united as a bloc, it will lose its ability to convene regional actors, mediate disputes, and shape principles of international behavior and interaction.The so-called ASEAN way, characterized by consensus-based decision-making and non-interference, has served ASEAN well, and the bloc would be unwise to jettison it. But a reassessment is needed if ASEAN is to speak with a strong voice on regional matters, rather than allowing dissenting voices within the group to prevent the adoption of collective positions. Given that existing global institutions are being challenged, and given the rise of Asia in global affairs, ASEAN must reinforce its ability to influence the debate.The World Economic Forum on ASEAN will be held in Hanoi, Vietnam, on September 11-13 and will provide an opportunity for such a reassessment. In an increasingly uncertain world, the need for the countries of ASEAN to deepen their community and their commitment to integration and collaboration is stronger than ever.
DISCUSSION AND APPLICATION QUESTIONS
- What specific disruptive forces are threatening ASEAN’s recent gains?
- How have ASEAN’s community-building efforts contributed to its economic success?
- What role do global institutions play in ASEAN’s ability to thrive amid regional and global transformations?
LANGUAGE REVIEW
FLASHCARDS
SYNONYMS
MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS TRANSLATION
| clout | позиция, установка |
| profound | укреплять, усиливать, подкреплять |
| impact | развивать, развертывать |
| bolster | отделять, обособлять, изолировать |
| insulate | влияние, авторитет, мощь, вес |
| pivotal | воздействие, влияние |
| facilitate | поддерживать, укреплять |
| evolve | основной, центральный, кардинальный |
| stance | глубокий, основательный, фундаментальный |
| reinforce | содействовать, способствовать, облегчать, продвигать |
MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS DEFINITION
| clout | of vital or critical importance |
| profound | come forth gradually into being; develop |
| impact | influence, as the force carried by a new idea, etc. |
| bolster | to make more forceful or effective; strengthen; support |
| insulate | strong influence; having a superior or more favorable position |
| pivotal | a mental or emotional position or opinion taken with respect to something |
| facilitate | support, or uphold |
| evolve | make something easier or more likely to happen |
| stance | of the greatest intensity; complete; relatively deep or strong; affecting one deeply |
| reinforce | to place in an isolated situation or condition; segregate; set apart |
MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS SYNONYMS
| clout | reinforce, strengthen, underpin, boost |
| profound | separate, single out |
| impact | promote, simplify, assist |
| bolster | attitude, position, opinion, viewpoint, standpoint, perspective |
| insulate | leverage, might, power |
| pivotal | strengthen, support, underpin, fortify |
| facilitate | develop, unfold, expand, elaborate |
| evolve | deep, extensive, total, intense |
| stance | crucial, central, principal, critical, essential |
| reinforce | effect, influence, ramifications, result, consequence |
MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS COLLOCATIONS
| clout | growth/ development/ access/ communication/ learning/ understanding |
| profound | sense/ feeling/ state/ impact/ influence/ effect |
| impact | independently/ separately/ at a rapid pace/ continues to |
| bolster | positive/ negative/ adverse/ small/ noticeable |
| insulate | from the region/ from painful experiences |
| pivotal | idea/ notion/ concept/ feelings/ opinion/ judgment |
| facilitate | wield/ pull/ carry/ hold |
| evolve | social/ political/ economic/ take an aggressive |
| stance | confidence/ career/ theory |
| reinforce | point/ moment/ figure/ influence |
COMPLETE THE SENTENCES BY FILLING IN FOCUS WORDS
evolve pivotal bolster reinforced clout facilitating impacted insulate stance profound | 1. The EU has grown into a global economic powerhouse, but never developed security and defense ………… to match. 2. Elon Musk and other technology leaders have urged artificial intelligence labs to pause the training of the most advanced systems, warning in an open letter that A.I. tools present “………… risks to society and humanity.” 3. In Germany, the eurozone’s biggest economy and the one most ………… by soaring energy costs, inflation has started to fall from double-digits in autumn. 4. The European Union has agreed to a $47 billion subsidy plan to ………… chip making in the bloc. 5. Countries such as Indonesia, India and Malaysia have restricted exports of cooking oil, wheat and chicken to ………… their domestic markets. 6. Mr. Macron’s move is seen as a ………… moment in a growing debate over nuclear power in Europe. 7. Nigeria’s central bank banned banks and financial institutions from dealing in or ………… transactions in digital currencies. 8. Public health experts say that while the pandemic’s perils have largely receded, they remain wary of future variants and note that the virus continues to ………… . 9. G7’s fundamental ………… is that currency rates are set by the market and that members will closely consult with each other on any action in the foreign exchange market. 10. The gender imbalance is ………… at the highest levels by a political agenda that has increasingly promoted conservative ideas about family structures and the role of women in society. |
MATCH THE COLLOCATIONS FROM THE TEXT
| 1. be substituted by | a. the interests |
| 2. pursue | b. regional actors |
| 3. advance | c. service |
| 4. foster dialogue on | d. the regional environment |
| 5. promote | e. ASEAN unanimity |
| 6. convene | f. political and security concern |
| 7. reshape | g. inward flows of investment |
| 8. pan-regional | h. economic integration |
| 9. tackle | i. intelligent automation |
| 10.undermine | j. issues |
COMPOSE MEANINGFUL SENTENCES BASED ON FOCUS WORDS AND COLLOCATIONS FROM THE TEXT
E.g. _____________ economic clout _____________
→ In terms of its democratic stability, economic clout, technological acumen, superb infrastructure and well-educated citizenry, South Korea ticks every box.
- _________ basically using social media clout _________
- _________ undertake one of the most profound changes _________
- _________ have a profound impact on _________
- _________ bolstering economic prosperity _________
- _________ to insulate the issue _________
- _________ was a pivotal moment _________
- _________ facilitate illegal migration _________
- _________ an era of rapidly evolving _________
- _________ taken a tougher stance towards _________
10. _________ the actions reinforce the importance of _________
PREPOSITIONS
- grapple ___
- ___ pressure
- an impact ___
- faced ___
- insulated ___
- respond ___
- ___ scale
- praise ___
- discriminate ___
- integral ___
- give rise ___
- ___ risk
- commitment ___
- vision ___
- stance ___
GRAMMAR MIX
- In recent years, however, the global environment ______ dramatically.
- has changed
- has been changing
- is changing
- was changed
2. The government said it ______ with the EU to find a solution to the issue.
- had been working
- will work
- was working
- has worked
3. All three countries ______ by their trading partners for violating various aspects of that pact, which revised and updated the older North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA.
- had been criticized
- were being criticized
- would be criticized
- are being criticized
4. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations ______ the lead in global economic integration in the past decade, rapidly ______ trade and investment links with China and India on the basis of strong complementarity with these countries.
- have taken, expanding
- took, expanding
- were taking, expanded
- had taken, having expanded
5. The Dutch prime minister’s four-party ruling coalition resigned after failing to agree on a package of measures ______ in migration, an issue that has divided the EU as a whole.
- reining
- reined
- to rein
- having reined
6. Now competition for investments in Iraq, and the economic influence that goes along with them, has become increasingly intense, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE ______ the charge.
- having led
- leading
- led
- to lead
7. Association members adopted what ______ appear to be formal PTAs, but in practice these were usually multilateralized, as ASEAN informally embraces what is sometimes termed “open regionalism.”
- should
- have to
- need to
- may
- Achieving the goals would involve strengthening or agreeing on a new set of basic principles for the governance of PAFTA (the Pan Arab Free Trade Area), including the prohibition of NTMs (nontariff measures), unless they ______ criteria such as nondiscrimination and necessity, effective national treatment provisions in the services trade, and an effective framework to guarantee the free movement of labor within the region.
- will fulfill
- will have fulfilled
- are fulfilling
- fulfill
9. In insurance, Egypt is among ______ restrictive countries in non-GCC MENA, reflecting the recent liberalization of the sector.
- the least
- less
- little
- fewest
10. ______ most countries have made some improvements in export diversification over the past 15 years, the level of diversification remains quite low compared to the world average.
- When
- Thus
- However
- While
VOCABULARY NOTES
| eventually в конечном счете | definition at the very end; finally synonyms finally; ultimately collocations (it) eventually [led to, resulted in, caused] was eventually [elected, chosen, wounded] eventually [won, stopped, crashed] |
| enduring прочный, продолжительный | definition lasting; permanent synonyms long-standing, constant, consistent, ongoing collocations enduring [freedom, prosperity, peace] the enduring [legacy, vision, power] of |
| derive получать, происходить, вытекать | definition to receive or obtain from a source or origin; produce synonyms stem from, originate in, arise from collocations derive [benefit, satisfaction, pleasure] (from) derives its meaning from [Greek, the context, your tone] derive [conclusions, results] (from, about) |
| distinctive отличительный, особый, характерный | definition serving to distinguish; characteristic synonyms typical, particular, unique, individual, special, different collocations distinctive in [quality, appearance, shape] a distinctive [smell, flavor, taste] distinctive features/ characteristics of |
| conform соответствовать, подчиняться | definition to act in accordance or agreement; comply synonyms obey, adhere, fulfill, satisfy collocations conform to [the norm, the status quo, society] conform to [expectations, requirements, regulations] conform to (certain) [social norms, conventions, rules] conform to someone else’s [ideas, ideals] |
| overlapping перекрывающий(ся); частично совпадающий | definition to have something in common or come together partly with synonyms coinciding, superimposed, projecting collocations overlapping ages/ counties/ sectors/ routes |
| superimpose накладывать, впечатывать | definition to put, place, or set over or on something else synonyms cover, overlay collocations superimpose conditions superimpose one image on another superimpose a map on |
| converge сходиться в одной точке, сосредоточиваться | definition to tend to meet at a point; to develop toward a common result synonyms merge, assemble, concentrate, focalise, meet collocations converge schedules converge to strong conclusions |
| envisage предусматривать, предвидеть, намечать | definition to imagine happening; visualize; envision synonyms foresee, predict, anticipate, envision, forecast collocations envisage [difficulties, issues, problems] envisage [a scenario, the circumstances, a situation] |
| secure гарантировать, укреплять, обеспечивать (безопасность) | definition to make certain of; ensure; make safe; obtain synonyms gain, attain, acquire, assure, protect collocations secure the [victory, win] secure the [position, niche, title] |