The Arctic Heats Up

HIGHLIGHTS

read the article paying attention to the words in bold
summarize the main ideas
comment on the ideas expressed by the author
compose 3 questions for discussion

FOCUS WORDS

solidify	укреплять, закреплять, объединять
assertiveness	напористость, настойчивость, уверенность
enshrined	закрепленный, предусмотренный, провозглашенный, зафиксированный
usher	вводить, возвещать, объявлять, открыть
adversarial	противостоящий, соперничающий, конкурентный
volatility	изменчивость, непостоянство, неустойчивость
immune	защищённый, огражденный, невосприимчивый
integral	неотъемлемый, встроенный, существенный
disrupt	разрушать, срывать, подрывать
foothold	прочное положение, исходная позиция, точка опоры, плацдарм

PREPOSITIONS

immune to
ushered in
access to
competition over
in particular
enshrined in
transformation into
account for
in the making
to this end

The Arctic Heats Up

Nov 9, 2022 Ana Palacio

Recent geopolitical events – above all, the war in Ukraine – have seemingly solidified the Arctic region’s transformation into a major theater of global geopolitical competition. To prevent escalation, the West must strike the right balance between diplomacy and assertiveness.

MADRID – Less than a month after Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, NATO launched its largest exercise in the Arctic in three decades, with as many as 30,000 troops from 27 countries participating in land, sea, and air drills. Operation Cold Response 2022, hosted by Norway, highlights just how tense things have become in a region that has long been largely immune to geopolitical volatility.

Of course, the Arctic’s strategic importance is nothing new. During the Cold War, the region offered the shortest flight path for intercontinental ballistic missiles between the United States and the Soviet Union, as well as plenty of cover for submarines, thanks to deep ice and inhospitable conditions for ships.

But the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union ushered in an era of declining militarization and increasing cooperation, especially on environmental protection. This shift was supported by the Arctic Council – an intergovernmental forum established in 1996 – which declares in its founding document (albeit in a footnote) that it should not “deal with matters of military security.” In recent years, however, the Arctic has been becoming an increasingly adversarial issue again. This is partly because of climate change – the Arctic is heating up 3-4 times faster than the global average – which has enabled the establishment of new commercial transit routes and unlocked greater access to, and competition over, the region’s natural resources. China, in particular, has been working to increase its presence. In 2018, the country proclaimed itself a “near-Arctic state” and announced plans to build a Polar Silk Road – connecting North America, East Asia, and Western Europe, through the Arctic Circle – as part of its Belt and Road Initiative. Those plans, together with China’s broader commitment to play a central role in the Arctic’s development, were enshrined in China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25). Recent geopolitical events – above all, the war in Ukraine – have seemingly solidified the Arctic region’s transformation into a major theater of geostrategic competition. Alarmed by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, Finland and Sweden have broken with their long-standing traditions of neutrality and applied to join NATO.

This does not bode well for the Arctic Council. Once Finland and Sweden’s NATO accession process is complete, Russia will be the forum’s only non-NATO member. Already, the rest of the Council’s members have boycotted any future talks held in Russia, which currently holds its rotating chairmanship. Then there is Russia itself. Though its military-strategic focus has traditionally been on the Black Sea and the Caucasus, Russia views the High North as an integral part of the larger Eurasian space. There is an important economic component to this logic: the Arctic territories account for a tenth of Russia’s GDP and a fifth of its exports. But it is also strategic: Russia reportedly maintains some 475 military assets in the Arctic, in addition to its Severomorsk-based Northern Fleet. In its latest Arctic strategy, published in 2020, Russia assumes an openly assertive stance. Departing markedly in both tone and content from its previous iteration, the strategy emphasizes the urgency of developing the Northern Sea Route as a “globally competitive national transport corridor” and ensuring Russia’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity.” For Russia and China – which announced a partnership “without limits” just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – cooperation in the High North has obvious benefits. China can take advantage of Russia’s extensive institutional presence – including its technological infrastructure and research-and-development activities – in the region, and access shorter and cheaper routes to the major economic centers of North America and Western Europe. For Russia, the main benefit lies in strengthening its broader relationship with China – a powerful ally in its efforts to challenge the West’s global economic and geopolitical dominance. As an added bonus, China could fill technology gaps that have arisen from Western sanctions, much as the United Arab Emirates has done for the Russian natural-gas company Novatek.

The remilitarization of the High North has been decades in the making. Yet the West is only beginning to wake up to the challenge. The latest NATO Strategic Concept, adopted in June, identifies Russia’s “capability to disrupt Allied reinforcements and freedom of navigation” in the High North as a “strategic challenge.” The European Union’s Arctic Policy, updated in 2021, fails to lay out a coherent or integrated approach. To hope for an end to geostrategic competition in the High North would be naive. But efforts must be made to avoid escalation of tensions. To this end, the West – working with like-minded partners, such as Japan and South Korea – must strike the right balance between diplomacy and assertiveness. Efforts to preserve the Arctic Council are essential. If Russia withdraws over concerns about NATO’s dominance, regional volatility would increase. That, in turn, would create a strategic opening for China to gain a foothold in Arctic governance.

Ana Palacio, a former minister of foreign affairs of Spain and former senior vice president and general counsel of the World Bank Group, is a visiting lecturer at Georgetown University.

DISCUSSION AND APPLICATION QUESTIONS

What is the Arctic Council, and how does it support cooperation in the region?
How has the end of the Cold War affected militarization in the Arctic?
What are some potential risks of escalating geopolitical competition in the Arctic, and how can they be mitigated?

LANGUAGE REVIEW

FLASHCARDS

SYNONYMS

MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS DEFINITION

solidify	the trait of being unpredictably irresolute
assertiveness	belonging as an essential part of the whole; necessary to completeness; component, constituent
enshrined	to unite firmly or consolidate, cause to acquire strength
usher	to interrupt the normal operation of; to cause disorder or turmoil in
adversarial	not responsive to or affected, protected
volatility	to attend or bring at the coming or beginning; precede or herald
immune	a secure position, a firm basis for further progress or development
integral	a quality or state characterised by certainty or acceptance or affirmation; aggressiveness
disrupt	pertaining to or characterised by antagonism and conflict
foothold	kept, held, protected, cherished as sacred; enclosed

MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS SYNONYMS

solidify	antagonistic, antipathetic, hostile
assertiveness	exempt, resistant, invulnerable, unsusceptible
enshrined	interfere with, interrupt, intrude on, obstruct
usher	make firm, secure, join
adversarial	essential, fundamental, indispensable
volatility	mark, announce, signal, pave the way for
immune	unpredictability, irresoluteness
integral	confidence, assurance, conviction, offensive boldness
disrupt	support, accomplishment, achievement
foothold	revered, venerated, enclosed

MATCH THE WORD WITH ITS COLLOCATIONS

solidify	to ransomware/ to the political change/ from any consequences/ from the global trend lines
assertiveness	in memory/ in the constitution/ in legislation
enshrined	market/ currency/ ongoing/ heavy/ experience/ of the situation
usher	integral to our [plan, mission]/ has an integral role/ part in the [company, government]
adversarial	status/ a position/ the trend
volatility	disrupt the [progress, growth, development] of/ disrupt the [meeting, conversation, peace, proceedings]
immune	in a new era/ epoch/ decade/ stage
integral	in the market/ in the industry/ in the mainstream media
disrupt	growing/ increasing/ military
foothold	approach/ countries/ regimes

COMPLETE THE SENTENCES BY FILLING IN FOCUS WORDS

adversarial
integral
disrupt
immune
foothold
assertiveness
enshrined
ushering
solidify
volatility

1. Solomon Islands Prime Minister has rejected suggestions that his government might give China a military …………. in the region.
2.Washington’s aim is to try to counter China’s growing …………. in the Indo-Pacific region, and comes 50 years after the U.S. troop withdrawal that marked the end of America’s direct military involvement in Vietnam.
3.Britain remains committed to a benchmark goal of being a net-zero — or carbon neutral — economy by 2050, which is …………. in law.
4.A new study from the Brookings Institution suggests that the rise of generative artificial intelligence, fueled by the popularity of the ChatGPT chatbot, could further …………. the Bay Area’s hold on tech.
5.As the relationship between the United States and China has become more …………., both countries are investing more in their intelligence collection capabilities.
6.Researchers have found that extreme temperatures reduce labor productivity, damage crops, raise mortality rates, …………. global trade and dampen investment.
7.There are fears that the government’s restructuring plan could lead to …………. in financial markets.
8.The world’s two largest economies, which together represent 40 percent of the global output, remain …………. partners in many ways.
9.Since Hugo Chávez was elected president in 1998, …………. in a movement that he said championed the working class, Venezuelans have participated in 17 elections, including presidential, legislative, gubernatorial and municipal contests.
10.The tech sector is not …………. from the current economic slowdown, as companies pull back on hiring and trim payrolls.

MATCH THE COLLOCATIONS FROM THE TEXT

1. enable the establishment of	a) rotating chairmanship
2. ensure sovereignty	b) the right balance
3. broader commitment	c) technology gaps
4. challenge	d) military assets
5. lay out a coherent	e) an assertive stance
6. strike	f) commercial transit routes
7. fill	g) and territorial integrity
8. hold its	h) to play a central role
9. assume	i) the global dominance
10. maintain	j) or integrated approach